2021-2023年我国煤矿事故统计分析及致因研究
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吕梁学院资源与机械工程系

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TD77

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吕梁市重点研发项目(2023SHFZ27);教育部产学合作协同育人项目(220606545243833)


Statistical Analysis and Causal Research of Coal Mine Accidents in China from 2021 to 2023
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Lyuliang University

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    摘要:

    为了客观分析我国煤矿事故的规律和特点,利用数理统计、相关分析、聚类分析、ABC分类管理等方法,结合origin制图,对我国2021-2023年的煤矿事故,从事故等级、时间、地域、类型方面进行了统计分析。结果表明:2023年我国煤矿重、特大事故有所反弹,应加强防范;煤矿事故5-9月份高发,11-2月份较少,交接班前后1-2小时事故率较高,表现出季节性和时间段集中的特征;煤矿事故呈现出明显的地域差异,山西、内蒙古、陕西、贵州、甘肃为事故高发地区,应重点防范;顶板、运输、机电事故起数较多,火灾、水害、冲击地压事故平均造成的死亡人数多,应分类管理。此外,针对起数较多的顶板、运输、机电三类主要事故类别,构建灰色关联分析模型,研究事故致因因素的关联程度,提出了事故预防对策。

    Abstract:

    In order to objectively analyze the laws and characteristics of coal mine accidents in China, using mathematical statistics, correlation analysis, cluster analysis, ABC classification, combined with origin mapping, the coal mine accidents in China from 2021 to 2023 are statistically analyzed from the aspects of accident grade, time, region and type. The results show that, the major accidents and extremely serious accidents of China's coal mine have rebounded in 2023, and prevention should be strengthened; Coal mine accidents occurred more frequently from May to September, less from November to February, and the accident rate was higher in 1-2 hours before and after the shift, which showed the characteristics of seasonality and time concentration. Coal mine accidents show obvious regional differences. Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Guizhou and Gansu are the areas with high incidence of accidents, and should be focused on prevention. The number of roof, transportation, mechanical and electrical accidents is more, and the average number of deaths caused by fire, water disaster and rock burst accidents is more, which should be classified and managed. In addition, according to the three major accident categories of roof, transportation and mechanical and electrical, the grey correlation analysis model is built to study the correlation degree of the factors causing the accident, and the accident prevention measures are put forward.

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  • 收稿日期:2024-04-09
  • 最后修改日期:2024-05-24
  • 录用日期:2024-06-06
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